{"id":1340,"date":"2022-01-03T12:45:47","date_gmt":"2022-01-03T05:45:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/anvilaw.com\/vi\/?p=1340"},"modified":"2022-01-29T12:33:48","modified_gmt":"2022-01-29T05:33:48","slug":"3-584-lo-ngai-no-xau-tu-tin-dung-bien-tuong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/anvilaw.com\/vi\/3-584-lo-ngai-no-xau-tu-tin-dung-bien-tuong\/","title":{"rendered":"3.584. Lo ng\u1ea1i n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u t\u1eeb t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u201cbi\u1ebfn t\u01b0\u1edbng\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"(\u0110TTC) –\u00a0Nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t v\u1ec1 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng TCTD \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng 3%, LS. TR\u01af\u01a0NG THANH \u0110\u1ee8C, Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c C\u00f4ng ty Lu\u1eadt ANVI, th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean Trung t\u00e2m Tr\u1ecdng t\u00e0i Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam (VIAC), cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn v\u00e0 x\u1eed l\u00fd n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7n nay, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng m\u00e0 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n vay, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u ph\u00ecnh to trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m t\u1edbi, g\u00e2y nh\u1eefng h\u1ec7 l\u1ee5y cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/strong><\/p>\n

PH\u00d3NG VI\u00caN:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>– \u00d4ng nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t th\u1ebf n\u00e0o v\u1ec1 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u n\u0103m 2021 do NHNN c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

TR\u01af\u01a0NG THANH \u0110\u1ee8C:<\/strong>– V\u1ec1 nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc, khi n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u t\u1eeb 3% tr\u1edf l\u00ean, TCTD kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1edf th\u00eam chi nh\u00e1nh giao d\u1ecbch m\u1edbi v\u00e0 b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 room t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. C\u00f2n khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u t\u1eeb 10% tr\u1edf l\u00ean s\u1ebd thu\u1ed9c di\u1ec7n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7n nay, theo s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a NHNN, c\u1ea3 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u n\u1ed9i b\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 t\u00edch l\u0169y 8,2%, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e1ng b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng, b\u1edfi n\u00f3 nh\u1ea3y v\u1ecdt so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2020. T\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y d\u1eabu ch\u01b0a ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh h\u1ebft s\u1ed1 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u, song \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u00fang th\u1ef1c tr\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng hi\u1ec7n nay.<\/p>\n

N\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u s\u1ebd b\u1ed9c l\u1ed9 r\u00f5 sau khi d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u01a1m v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ee7 th\u1eddi gian chu k\u1ef3 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh. S\u1edbm nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 6 th\u00e1ng n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n, v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t sau th\u1eddi gian 1-2 n\u0103m, l\u00fac \u0111\u1ea5y \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ebft th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ea3o n\u1ee3 v\u00e0 doanhn nghi\u1ec7p (DN) c\u0169ng h\u1ebft c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 xoay x\u1edf.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 Th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 01 c\u1ee7a NHNN c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1eabn l\u00e0 bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201ct\u1ea1m \u1ea9n n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u\u201d. V\u00ec khi kh\u00f4ng \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng Th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 01 n\u1eefa n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u s\u1ebd t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n

Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i v\u1eabn l\u00e0 gi\u1eef \u0111\u00fang nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc: b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u1ee3 qu\u00e1 h\u1ea1n, chuy\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u l\u00e0 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u, ph\u1ea3i nh\u00ecn th\u1eb3ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u r\u1ed3i cho r\u1eb1ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. V\u00ec th\u1ebf, con s\u1ed1 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u n\u0103m 2021 NHNN v\u1eeba c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 lo ng\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

– Tuy nhi\u00ean, Th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 01 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft gi\u00fap DN ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kinh doanh, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh d\u1ecbch Covid-19 \u0111ang t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

– \u1ede \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ea7n ch\u00fa \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ee9c h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a DN. Vi\u1ec7c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng Th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 01 hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111ang \u201cc\u00e0o b\u1eb1ng\u201d, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed vi\u1ec7c h\u1ea1 tr\u1ea7n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t xu\u1ed1ng th\u1ea5p c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0a l\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 mong mu\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n

B\u1edfi l\u1ebd, trong s\u1ed1 DN c\u1ea7n ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u lo\u1ea1i. Nh\u00f3m th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 DN l\u00e0m \u0103n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, c\u00f3 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kinh doanh v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc, h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n vay.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00f3m th\u1ee9 hai ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 DNNVV, \u0111a s\u1ed1 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n v\u1ed1n l\u1edbn v\u00ec s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu t\u1eeb v\u1ed1n t\u1ef1 c\u00f3, v\u00e0 d\u00f9 c\u00f3 h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y c\u0169ng kh\u00f3 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00f3m th\u1ee9 ba l\u00e0 nh\u00f3m DN c\u1ea7n quan t\u00e2m, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng DN c\u00f3 \u201cti\u1ec1n s\u1eed\u201d b\u1ecb n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 vay n\u1eefa m\u1edbi quan t\u00e2m nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ebfn Th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 01.<\/p>\n

T\u00f4i n\u00f3i th\u00eam, b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n NH kh\u00f4ng m\u1eb7n m\u00e0 v\u1edbi Th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 01, b\u1edfi n\u1ebfu bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i gia h\u1ea1n theo Th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 01 trong n\u0103m 2022, nguy c\u01a1 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u bung ra r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi. \u0110\u00e2y s\u1ebd l\u00e0 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, cho NH v\u00e0 DN.<\/p>\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng hi\u1ec7n t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 13%. N\u1ebfu s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y b\u01a1m ra th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng theo h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c cho vay \u0111\u1ec3 DN l\u00e0m \u0103n hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, t\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd thu h\u1ed3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ed1n. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng lo ng\u1ea1i l\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n b\u01a1m ra kh\u00f4ng \u0111i \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng, sau m\u1ed9t h\u1ed3i \u201cch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn\u201d \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea3y sang nh\u1eefng l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro nh\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, bitcoin. Trong ng\u00e0nh NH \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ee5 vi\u1ec7c n\u00f3i tr\u00ean, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 vay \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3o n\u1ee3, \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c, nh\u01b0 v\u1ee5 \u00e1n Huy\u1ec1n Nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 th\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n

Theo t\u00f4i, c\u00f3 l\u1ebd c\u1ea7n l\u1ea5y b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc v\u1ec1 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2008-2009 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. N\u0103m 2008, cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u khi\u1ebfn n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf n\u01b0\u1edbc ta ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1. Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 tung ra g\u00f3i k\u00edch c\u1ea7u 8 t\u1ef7 USD \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u00e1c DN, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 g\u00f3i h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 1 t\u1ef7 USD.<\/p>\n

G\u00f3i n\u00e0y d\u00f9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch, th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c NH h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 4%\/n\u0103m, gi\u00fap DN ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Nh\u01b0ng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 mong mu\u1ed1n, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n khi\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 2 con s\u1ed1. H\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3, su\u1ed1t nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m sau c\u00e1c NH loay hoay x\u1eed l\u00fd n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u. \u0110\u1ebfn nay, sau h\u00e0ng ch\u1ee5c n\u0103m g\u00f3i h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 n\u00e0y v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a quy\u1ebft to\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n

– V\u1eady \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi x\u1eed l\u00fd n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7n nay v\u00e0 trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m t\u1edbi s\u1ebd n\u00ean theo h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0o, th\u01b0a \u00f4ng?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

– Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cho th\u1ea5y, vi\u1ec7c NH h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, hay n\u00f3i \u0111\u00fang h\u01a1n l\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 DN th\u00f4ng qua ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n ph\u1ea3i \u01b0u ti\u00ean \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u0129 m\u00f4, ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o an to\u00e0n, b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng NH. L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p trong 20 n\u0103m qua (l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay 5 l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u01b0u ti\u00ean hi\u1ec7n 4,5%\/n\u0103m), l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay 6-7%\/n\u0103m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n ng\u1eafn, 9-11%\/n\u0103m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 s\u1ee9c h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f2n y\u1ebfu, trong khi \u0111\u00f3 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, an to\u00e0n, b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng TCTD l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1eb7t ra.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 Th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 01 v\u00e0 03\/2021\/TT-NHNN, t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2 th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 n\u00e0y \u0111\u1eb7t ra l\u00e0 nh\u1eb1m h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 DN b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi d\u1ecbch Covid-19 l\u00e0 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u1edf kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh DN \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u00e3n, ho\u00e3n, \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n tr\u1ea3 n\u1ee3, v\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n. Nh\u01b0ng 2 th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 n\u00e0y c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n ph\u00e2n t\u00e1ch r\u00f5.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t l\u00e0, \u201cb\u1eadt \u0111\u00e8n xanh\u201d vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c cho vay, th\u1ef1c ch\u1ea5t l\u00e0 h\u1ea1 chu\u1ea9n cho vay. N\u1ebfu 2 th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c NH kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0m. Hai l\u00e0, khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch NH h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u01b0u \u0111\u00e3i, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn mi\u1ec5n, gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i, ph\u00ed, ph\u1ea1t. Th\u1ef1c ra \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y n\u1ebfu th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng cho ph\u00e9p NHTM v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0m.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e1ng n\u00f3i, 2 th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn sai b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t, th\u1ef1c ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u. V\u1ec1 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t, vi\u1ec7c x\u1eed l\u00fd t\u1ea1m khoanh n\u1ee3, t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mi\u1ec5n tr\u00e1ch, t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u201cch\u1ebf t\u00e0i\u201d x\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 DN v\u00e0 NH.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, x\u1eed l\u00fd nh\u01b0 2 th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 tr\u00ean c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 g\u00e2y nh\u1ea7m l\u1eabn, ch\u1ee7 quan, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00fang b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t, t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nguy c\u01a1 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn c\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai g\u1ea7n, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng ph\u00ecnh to.<\/p>\n

– Xin c\u1ea3m \u01a1n \u00f4ng.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u01b0u Th\u1ee7y (th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n

—————<\/em><\/p>\n

S\u00e0i<\/em> G\u00f2n \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh (T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh)\u00a0 03-01-2022:<\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.saigondautu.com.vn\/tai-chinh\/lo-ngai-no-xau-tu-tin-dung-bien-tuong-100634.html<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

(1.196\/1.293)<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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