{"id":21331,"date":"2015-03-05T14:20:35","date_gmt":"2015-03-05T07:20:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/anvilaw.com\/vi\/?p=21331"},"modified":"2022-05-16T14:22:42","modified_gmt":"2022-05-16T07:22:42","slug":"648-pha-gia-tien-dong-than-trong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/anvilaw.com\/vi\/648-pha-gia-tien-dong-than-trong\/","title":{"rendered":"648. Ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed3ng: Th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng!"},"content":{"rendered":"(NL\u0110) –\u00a0\u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 lu\u00f4n l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m. V\u00ec th\u1ebf, nhi\u1ec1u \u00fd ki\u1ebfn cho r\u1eb1ng n\u00ean \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng m\u1ed7i n\u0103m 1%<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1eeba \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia Vi\u1ec7n Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch (VEPR) thu\u1ed9c \u0110H Kinh t\u1ebf, \u0110HQG H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc (NHNN) t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2015 n\u00ean ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u1eeb 3%-4% trong v\u00f2ng 2-3 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1edbi bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 1%-1,5%.<\/p>\n

Tr\u1ea3 l\u1ea1i s\u1ee9c c\u1ea1nh tranh cho h\u00e0ng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba<\/strong><\/p>\n

Theo VEPR, sau nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m c\u00f3 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao, vi\u1ec7c neo gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb VN\u0110 v\u00e0o USD khi\u1ebfn VN\u0110 b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i cho h\u00e0ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a trong n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u00e0ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u. \u1ea2nh h\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00e0y trong n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2014 c\u00f2n nh\u00e2n l\u00ean khi \u0111\u1ed3ng USD t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 so v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n kh\u00e1c tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi khi\u1ebfn VN\u0110 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u1ebb h\u01a1n. VEPR cho r\u1eb1ng trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, NHNN \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 v\u1edbi bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1eb9p l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7n Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00ean ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u1eeb 3%-4% trong v\u00f2ng 2-3 n\u0103m t\u1edbi \u1ea2nh: T\u1ea5n Th\u1ea1nh<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i l\u1edbn trong n\u0103m 2014 bu\u1ed9c NHNN can thi\u1ec7p 2 l\u1ea7n v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 1,4% (n\u1eb1m trong gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh) trong khi t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef1 do t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 2%. So v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ea1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i kh\u00e1c, VN\u0110 t\u1ecf ra t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng USD. VEPR cho r\u1eb1ng c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf neo \u0111\u1ed3ng VN\u0110 v\u00e0o USD \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c can thi\u1ec7p ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i l\u1edbn v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro v\u0129 m\u00f4 th\u1ea5p cho ph\u00e9p Vi\u1ec7t Nam ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed9 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed3ng. Nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t b\u1ea5t c\u1eadp c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y l\u00e0 h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a VN\u0110 so v\u1edbi USD v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7 kh\u00e1c. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y \u00e2m th\u1ea7m di\u1ec5n ra trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu s\u1ee9c c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u1ee7a h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u00e0ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp tr\u1ee3 gi\u00e1 cho ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng h\u00e0ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u.<\/p>\n

N\u00ean gi\u1eef \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh<\/strong><\/p>\n

TS Tr\u01b0\u01a1ng V\u0103n Ph\u01b0\u1edbc, Ph\u00f3 Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch \u1ee6y ban Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh qu\u1ed1c gia, cho r\u1eb1ng trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1eeba t\u1ea1o l\u1eadp \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ebf \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 sau nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 th\u00ec t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i n\u00ean ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. B\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i l\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao.<\/p>\n

\u201cCho n\u00ean n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u, v\u1ec1 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft c\u00f3 v\u1ebb \u0111\u00fang nh\u01b0ng trong l\u00fac n\u00e0y c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i. \u0110\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u00ean, \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng l\u00ean 1%-2% v\u00e0 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 \u0111\u00f3 t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, c\u00e1c d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp, gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t…\u201d – TS Tr\u01b0\u01a1ng V\u0103n Ph\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e2n t\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Theo TS Cao S\u1ef9 Ki\u00eam, th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng T\u01b0 v\u1ea5n Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c gia, v\u1edbi ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u th\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 xu\u1ed1ng c\u0169ng l\u00e0 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. Tuy nhi\u00ean, ph\u1ea3i r\u1ea5t ch\u00fa \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 n\u1ee3 cao, nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u nguy\u00ean v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u, trang thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 cho ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3, t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 cao qu\u00e1 s\u1ebd thi\u1ec7t ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i. \u201cV\u00ed d\u1ee5 c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111ang vay m\u1ea5y ch\u1ee5c t\u1ec9 USD, nay \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u00ean 1 \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u00ec ph\u1ea3i g\u00e1nh ti\u1ec1n n\u1ee3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i l\u1edbn. G\u00e1nh n\u1eb7ng n\u00e0y l\u1ea1i d\u1ed3n v\u00e0o chi ph\u00ed doanh nghi\u1ec7p, gi\u00e1 th\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m, khi \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ee9c c\u1ea1nh tranh h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a b\u1ecb k\u00e9o xu\u1ed1ng. N\u1ebfu ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 VN\u0110 2%-3% trong v\u00f2ng 2 \u0111\u1ebfn 3 n\u0103m th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 g\u00ec. Nh\u01b0ng v\u1edbi bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u00f3 m\u00e0 d\u1ed3n v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t l\u00fac th\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y s\u1ed1c, c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i x\u00e9t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u00edch h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u00edch l\u00ean 0,5%- 1% m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o n\u0103m 2015, kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01a1n n\u00ean t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh tr\u00ean d\u01b0\u1edbi 2%\u201d – TS Ki\u00eam n\u00f3i.<\/p>\n

Chuy\u00ean gia t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Nguy\u1ec5n Tr\u00ed Hi\u1ebfu cho r\u1eb1ng tuy \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed3ng. \u201cT\u1ea1i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y, v\u1edbi t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh trong bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd tr\u00ean d\u01b0\u1edbi 1% th\u00ec n\u00ean \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 t\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u01a1n l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c t\u0103ng t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1\u201d – \u00f4ng Hi\u1ebfu n\u00eau \u00fd ki\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n

S\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i b\u1ecf tr\u1ea7n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u0169ng \u0111ang c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u \u00fd ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t b\u1ecf tr\u1ea7n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 cho vay. TS Cao S\u1ef9 Ki\u00eam cho r\u1eb1ng d\u1ee1 b\u1ecf tr\u1ea7n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u00ean v\u00ec khi kinh t\u1ebf ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp th\u00ec xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1ef1 do h\u00f3a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m nh\u01b0ng c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 th\u00eam th\u1eddi gian.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng t\u00ecnh v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfn t\u1edbi t\u1ef1 do h\u00f3a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t nh\u01b0ng chuy\u00ean gia Nguy\u1ec5n Tr\u00ed Hi\u1ebfu cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u00edch h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ecf tr\u1ea7n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. \u00d4ng Hi\u1ebfu ph\u00e2n t\u00edch: \u201cTr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, NHNN tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 s\u1ebd b\u1ecf tr\u1ea7n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u1ebfu ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1ed1t. Nay do \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u n\u00ean l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u1ea5p, t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u y\u1ebfu. Ch\u01b0a k\u1ec3 v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a NHNN \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea3i t\u1ed5 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u00f4ng qua t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u, ng\u00e0nh ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh s\u1ebd l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 do h\u00f3a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u201d.<\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, lu\u1eadt s\u01b0 Tr\u01b0\u01a1ng Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c,\u00a0<\/em>Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c C\u00f4ng ty Lu\u1eadt TNHH ANVI,\u00a0<\/em>Ban Ph\u00e1p ch\u1ebf Hi\u1ec7p h\u1ed9i Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Vi\u1ec7t Nam, cho r\u1eb1ng tr\u1ea7n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1edbi nay ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 \u201cli\u1ec7u ph\u00e1p t\u00e2m l\u00fd\u201d. Trong l\u00fac thanh kho\u1ea3n k\u00e9m, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111i \u0111\u00eam v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi g\u1eedi ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t r\u00e0o l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng huy \u0111\u1ed9ng, \u0111\u1ebfn nay thanh kho\u1ea3n \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, tr\u1ea7n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00f4 H\u00e0 – Th\u00f9y D\u01b0\u01a1ng<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014<\/em><\/p>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1eddi Lao \u0111\u1ed9ng (Kinh t\u1ebf) 05-03-2015:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

http:\/\/nld.com.vn\/kinh-te\/pha-gia-tien-dong-than-trong-20150304213843992.htm<\/em><\/p>\n

(68\/1.137)","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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