{"id":27835,"date":"2017-09-13T14:48:52","date_gmt":"2017-09-13T07:48:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/anvilaw.com\/vi\/?p=27835"},"modified":"2022-06-16T14:50:52","modified_gmt":"2022-06-16T07:50:52","slug":"1-499-ts-tran-dinh-thien-co-tang-tin-dung-se-gay-rui-ro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/anvilaw.com\/vi\/1-499-ts-tran-dinh-thien-co-tang-tin-dung-se-gay-rui-ro\/","title":{"rendered":"1.499. TS Tr\u1ea7n \u0110\u00ecnh Thi\u00ean: C\u1ed1 t\u0103ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng s\u1ebd g\u00e2y r\u1ee7i ro"},"content":{"rendered":"(\u0110V) – Theo Vi\u1ec7n tr\u01b0\u1edfng Vi\u1ec7n Kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam, n\u1ebfu b\u01a1m t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng ra nhanh m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n, kh\u00f4ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t k\u1ef9 th\u00ec h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea9y ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng l\u00ean 22% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m l\u00e0 18%, TS Tr\u1ea7n \u0110\u00ecnh Thi\u00ean, Vi\u1ec7n tr\u01b0\u1edfng Vi\u1ec7n Kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam, th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean T\u1ed5 t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng cho r\u1eb1ng, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n khi \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng nh\u01b0ng c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i xem x\u00e9t k\u1ef9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng cao \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng g\u00ec. B\u1edfi n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng d\u1ec5 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng, do s\u1ef1 h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n nay c\u00f2n y\u1ebfu, c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eabn g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

“V\u1ec1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u00f2n y\u1ebfu, n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u ch\u01b0a x\u1eed l\u00fd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng t\u0103ng. Nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y l\u00e0m cho r\u1ee7i ro kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 t\u0103ng l\u00ean, khi\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 khi cung ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u01a1m ra nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u0103ng cao kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cb\u1eaby\u201d n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng x\u1ea3y ra nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Do \u0111\u00f3, thay v\u00ec \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh v\u1ed1n vay, n\u00ean xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 doanh nghi\u1ec7p, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i vay, gi\u1ea3m chi ph\u00ed v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i, c\u1eaft b\u1ecf c\u00e1c chi ph\u00ed gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp, b\u1ecf c\u00e1c gi\u1ea5y ph\u00e9p con… N\u1ebfu l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0 v\u1eady th\u00ec hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 doanh nghi\u1ec7p thu v\u1ec1 cao h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c b\u01a1m m\u1ea1nh v\u1ed1n ra th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3”, b\u00e1o \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1eabn l\u1eddi \u00f4ng n\u00f3i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Chuy\u00ean gia lo ng\u1ea1i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c “m\u1ef3 \u0103n li\u1ec1n” nh\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111i v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro, v\u1ecb chuy\u00ean gia ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng: “Theo t\u00ednh to\u00e1n, 1% t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng s\u1ebd t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c l\u00ean t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. V\u00ec v\u1eady, \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng ch\u01b0a h\u1eb3n \u0111\u00e3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP, m\u00e0 h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 kh\u00f3 tr\u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u.<\/p>\n

B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, n\u1ebfu quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u0103ng th\u00eam t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng th\u00ec hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf, m\u00e0 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i sang c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2018. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, n\u0103m 2018, ch\u00fang ta c\u1ea7n c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kh\u00e1c, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng h\u1eb3n l\u00e0 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. Theo t\u00f4i, c\u1ed1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3”.<\/p>\n

\u00d4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o, n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea9y t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u0103ng l\u00ean hi\u1ec7n nay th\u00ec rong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t nguy hi\u1ec3m, v\u1ed1n ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u t\u00e1i t\u0103ng l\u00e0 kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, v\u1ed1n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u0103ng ch\u01b0a h\u1eb3n ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, kinh doanh, m\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 khi b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n \u0111ang \u1ea5m l\u00ean.<\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u cao v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n nay ch\u00fang ta v\u1eabn \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft. N\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t k\u1ef9, t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n th\u00ec r\u1ee7i ro n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

B\u1edfi th\u1ebf, TS Tr\u1ea7n \u0110\u00ecnh Thi\u00ean nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh, n\u1ebfu t\u0103ng th\u00eam kho\u1ea3ng 2% t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng, \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00ean 22%, th\u00ec l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ed1n b\u01a1m ra n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00e1 l\u1edbn, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ebfn n\u1ed7i g\u00e2y ra c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng v\u1ec1 thanh kho\u1ea3n v\u00e0 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a TS Tr\u1ea7n \u0110\u00ecnh Thi\u00ean cho th\u1ea5y \u00f4ng c\u00f9ng chung n\u1ed7i lo v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00e1c khi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 22% thay v\u00ec 18% nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

T\u1eebng trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi \u0110\u1ea5t Vi\u1ec7t, LS Tr\u01b0\u01a1ng Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c, Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c C\u00f4ng ty Lu\u1eadt ANVI, Tr\u1ecdng t\u00e0i vi\u00ean Trung t\u00e2m Tr\u1ecdng t\u00e0i Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam (VIAC) lo ng\u1ea1i, y\u00eau c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng cao h\u01a1n \u0111ang c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 l\u00e0m m\u00e9o m\u00f3 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng khi vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng hay gi\u1ea3m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng l\u00e0 do kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng h\u1ea5p thu c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, do doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 nhu c\u1ea7u vay v\u1ed1n hay kh\u00f4ng, do ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 an to\u00e0n, hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, kh\u1ea3 thi kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec3 cho vay.<\/em><\/p>\n

“Th\u1ef1c ra, t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u0169ng mu\u1ed1n t\u0103ng. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng t\u1ed1t th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng d\u1ea1i g\u00ec t\u0103ng v\u00ec h\u1ecd r\u1ea5t th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n an to\u00e0n, hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3. Nh\u01b0ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u00e0o k\u00e9m, n\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1edf c\u1eeda s\u1ebd l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c t\u0103ng v\u00f4 t\u1ed9i v\u1ea1, ch\u1ee5p gi\u1eadt v\u00e0 mu\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea1t th\u00e0nh t\u00edch \u0103n x\u1ed5i \u1edf th\u00ec, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n t\u0103ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf th\u00ec m\u1edbi t\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, doanh s\u1ed1, gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu… Nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n 1, 2 n\u0103m sau, c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 m\u1edbi kinh kh\u1ee7ng.<\/em><\/p>\n

Khi \u1ea5y, th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00e1i di\u1ec5n v\u00e0 l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1eebng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed5 t\u1ed9i cho ng\u00e0nh ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng”, LS Tr\u01b0\u01a1ng Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o.<\/em><\/p>\n

C\u00f2n TS B\u00f9i Quang T\u00edn, gi\u1ea3ng vi\u00ean khoa Qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb Kinh doanh, \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng TP.HCM, lo r\u1eb1ng, khi cung ti\u1ec1n t\u0103ng m\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 nhanh th\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed5 v\u1ed1n v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c phi s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t nh\u01b0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n…, nh\u1eefng l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi nh\u01b0 m\u1ef3 \u0103n li\u1ec1n. Nguy c\u01a1 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 bong b\u00f3ng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n 2006-2008 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3,\u00a0 khi d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o kinh t\u1ebf ph\u1ea3i cho n\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5. N\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 v\u00f2ng quay v\u1ed1n v\u1edbi th\u1eddi gian trung b\u00ecnh t\u1eeb 3-6 th\u00e1ng, nhi\u1ec1u khi ch\u01b0a h\u1ebft m\u1ed9t v\u00f2ng quay, ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ea1y qua n\u0103m sau.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00ednh v\u00ec th\u1ebf, b\u00e0i to\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng cung ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng 21-22% c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n h\u01a1n n\u1eefa.<\/p>\n

Minh Th\u00e1i\u00a0<\/strong>(T\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p)<\/em><\/p>\n

——————————————-<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ea5t Vi\u1ec7t (T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh) 13-9-2017:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

http:\/\/baodatviet.vn\/kinh-te\/tai-chinh\/ts-tran-dinh-thien-co-tang-tin-dung-se-gay-rui-ro-3343004\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

(219\/1.096)<\/em>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(\u0110V) – Theo Vi\u1ec7n tr\u01b0\u1edfng Vi\u1ec7n Kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam, n\u1ebfu b\u01a1m t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng ra nhanh m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n, kh\u00f4ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t k\u1ef9 th\u00ec h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng. Li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea9y ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng l\u00ean 22% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m l\u00e0 18%, TS Tr\u1ea7n \u0110\u00ecnh Thi\u00ean, Vi\u1ec7n tr\u01b0\u1edfng […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27836,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-binh-luan-gop-y","category-legal-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n1.499. 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