{"id":30099,"date":"2016-12-10T09:49:12","date_gmt":"2016-12-10T02:49:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/anvilaw.com\/vi\/?p=30099"},"modified":"2022-06-27T09:51:56","modified_gmt":"2022-06-27T02:51:56","slug":"1-149-kinh-te-nam-2016-da-den-luc-phan-tich-sau-ve-chat-luong-tang-truong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/anvilaw.com\/vi\/1-149-kinh-te-nam-2016-da-den-luc-phan-tich-sau-ve-chat-luong-tang-truong\/","title":{"rendered":"1.149. Kinh t\u1ebf n\u0103m 2016: \u0110\u00e3 \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00fac ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u00e2u v\u1ec1 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng"},"content":{"rendered":"(<\/strong>VOV.VN<\/strong>)<\/strong> – C\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia cho r\u1eb1ng, vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u0169ng l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c c\u1ea7n b\u00e0n.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed1i qu\u00fd III\/2016, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ph\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ea5u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf \u1edf m\u1ee9c 6,3% – 6,5%, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec1 ra l\u00e0 6,7% do trong n\u01b0\u1edbc ch\u1ecbu nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu, thi\u00ean tai v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng, \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00f4ng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i, th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n

B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng, Ch\u1ee7 nhi\u1ec7m V\u0103n ph\u00f2ng Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Mai Ti\u1ebfn D\u0169ng c\u0169ng t\u1eebng l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i, tinh th\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 lu\u00f4n mu\u1ed1n ph\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao nh\u1ea5t, \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec1 ra. Tuy nhi\u00ean, nhi\u1ec1u d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o cho th\u1ea5y, n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 6,7% trong n\u0103m 2016 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 c\u1ef1c kh\u00f3. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00e0 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kh\u00f4ng quan tr\u1ecdng b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PGS.TS.\u00a0Ng\u00f4 Tr\u00ed Long, nguy\u00ean Vi\u1ec7n tr\u01b0\u1edfng Vi\u1ec7n Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd gi\u00e1 (B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh)<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u1ec1 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 ch\u1ea5t t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u0103m 2016 t\u1ea1i T\u1ecda \u0111\u00e0m \u201cL\u00e0m \u0103n g\u00ec n\u0103m 2017\u201d, PGS.TS.\u00a0Ng\u00f4 Tr\u00ed Long, nguy\u00ean Vi\u1ec7n tr\u01b0\u1edfng Vi\u1ec7n Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd gi\u00e1 (B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh) \u0111\u1eb7t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1, vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng\u2026s\u1ebd l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 thi\u1ebft th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 lu\u00f4n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 quan t\u00e2m.<\/p>\n

C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 trong v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf 2016, PGS.TS.\u00a0Ng\u00f4 Tr\u00ed Long cho \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng, vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t…<\/p>\n

\u201cTh\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i, mu\u1ed1n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh th\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u, t\u0103ng gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 t\u0103ng khai th\u00e1c d\u1ea7u.\u00a0Tuy nhi\u00ean, ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o th\u00ec ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e0n t\u1edbi. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u0169ng l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c c\u1ea7n b\u00e0n v\u00e0 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed1t nh\u01b0ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u0169ng r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng\u201d, PGS.TS.\u00a0Ng\u00f4 Tr\u00ed Long n\u00eau r\u00f5.<\/p>\n

Hay nh\u01b0 trong v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, PGS.TS.\u00a0Ng\u00f4 Tr\u00ed Long ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t n\u0103m 2016 l\u00e0 d\u01b0\u1edbi 5%, nh\u01b0ng quanh c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1.<\/p>\n

\u201cNgay nh\u01b0 trong c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng, d\u1ea7u d\u00f9 theo m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn c\u1ea7n xem x\u00e9t gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng, d\u1ea7u trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi hay ch\u01b0a?\u00a0Thu\u1ebf nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u00ednh m\u1edbi khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u cao h\u01a1n, B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 B\u1ed9 C\u00f4ng Th\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed5 l\u1ed7i v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, thu\u1ebf ch\u1ed3ng thu\u1ebf trong c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u\u201d, PGS.TS.\u00a0Ng\u00f4 Tr\u00ed Long l\u1ea5y v\u00ed d\u1ee5.<\/p>\n

Do v\u1eady, theo PGS.TS.\u00a0Ng\u00f4 Tr\u00ed Long, v\u1edbi c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ngh\u0129 v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n. Trong khi nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f9ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1, ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o l\u1ee3i \u00edch thu\u1ebf ph\u00ed, l\u1ee3i \u00edch doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Chuy\u00ean gia t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh – TS. Nguy\u1ec5n Tr\u00ed Hi\u1ebfu.<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch 4 nh\u00f3m nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1i sao ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf 2016 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0 k\u00ec v\u1ecdng 6,7% GDP, chuy\u00ean gia t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, TS. Nguy\u1ec5n Tr\u00ed Hi\u1ebfu ph\u00e2n t\u00edch hai nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng th\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu. Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c r\u00fat kh\u1ecfi Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ngo\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb nhi\u1ec1u l\u00fd do nh\u01b0 Brexit, \u00f4ng Donald Trump tr\u00fang c\u1eed T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9\u2026<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00f2n hai nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 m\u1edbi n\u00ean c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1eafp x\u1ebfp m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9. Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc thua l\u1ed7 c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

VOV.VN – Tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft s\u00e1ch k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf 2016.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Nguy\u1ec5n Tr\u00ed Hi\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 r\u00f5, v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u01b0ng d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00f3i \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m qua nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a th\u1ea5y c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n, nghe \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf d\u00f9 l\u00e0 6% hay 6,7% s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng r\u00f5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 t\u0103ng hay gi\u1ea3m, nh\u01b0ng v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u00ec \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 con s\u1ed1 r\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1ng ph\u1ea3i quan t\u00e2m.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \u201cGDP c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang \u1edf trong kho\u1ea3ng 2.000 USD\/n\u0103m\/ng\u01b0\u1eddi, n\u1ebfu chia ra thu nh\u1eadp m\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n c\u00f3 kho\u1ea3ng 3 – 4 tri\u1ec7u\/th\u00e1ng. Th\u1ebf n\u00ean GDP ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m 0,7% th\u00ec h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng m\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1ecbu thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i. Do \u0111\u00f3, kinh t\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng hay suy gi\u1ea3m s\u1ebd t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n, ch\u00ednh ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n l\u1ea1i ch\u1ecbu thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t\u201d, TS. Nguy\u1ec5n Tr\u00ed Hi\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 r\u00f5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
    <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Lu\u1eadt s\u01b0 Tr\u01b0\u01a1ng Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c,\u00a0<\/em>Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c C\u00f4ng ty Lu\u1eadt ANVI<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    Lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng gia t\u0103ng n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf, Lu\u1eadt s\u01b0 Tr\u01b0\u01a1ng Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c,\u00a0<\/em>Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c C\u00f4ng ty Lu\u1eadt ANVI\u00a0<\/em>cho r\u1eb1ng, n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t x\u1ea5u. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u \u0111ang gi\u1ea3m nh\u01b0ng c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng, th\u1eddi gian n\u1ee3 12 th\u00e1ng hay 36 th\u00e1ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u1ea1i, nguy hi\u1ec3m th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 n\u1eb1m \u1edf nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 c\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian t\u1eeb tr\u00ean 3 – 5 n\u0103m.<\/em><\/p>\n

    \u201cC\u0169ng c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n h\u00f3a hi\u1ec7n nay c\u0169ng m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 \u201cb\u00ecnh m\u1edbi r\u01b0\u1ee3u c\u0169\u201d. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n h\u00f3a nh\u01b0ng chi ph\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1eabn r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn. Hi\u1ebfn ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ed1t ch\u1eb7t kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i. C\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc trong khi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111ang l\u00e0m ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i\u201d, Lu\u1eadt s\u01b0 Tr\u01b0\u01a1ng Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c b\u0103n kho\u0103n.\/.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

    Nguy\u1ec5n Qu\u1ef3nh\/VOV.VN<\/strong><\/p>\n

    ———–<\/strong><\/p>\n

    VOV.vn (Kinh t\u1ebf) 10-12-2016:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    http:\/\/vov.vn\/kinh-te\/kinh-te-nam-2016-da-den-luc-phan-tich-sau-ve-chat-luong-tang-truong-576581.vov<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

    (165\/1.095)<\/em><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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